Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,088$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(207 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,074.3}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,074.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $77$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(92.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $548$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,082$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,608.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,608.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,669$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,042.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,042.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,408$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,809$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,573.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,573.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $211$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.7}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(216.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,566$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,176$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(355 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,574.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,574.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $220$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(10.9 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(279.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,605$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(998 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,878.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,878.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $475$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(53.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{464.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(464.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,046$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,517$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,419.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(51,419.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,765$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(436 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,940.7}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,940.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,541$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,500$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194,670.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(194,670.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,205$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,174.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,174.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $154,399$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $209,328$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,773.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,773.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,710$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,270.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,270.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,704$ on 2020-05-02
